Why you should draft a running back in the first round of your fantasy football

I started playing this maddening game in the mid 90’s there has always been a couple axioms regarding the first round: (1) draft a RB in the first round and (2) don’t draft a QB in the first round. To this day these axioms stand and I’m going to tell you why. Of course there are caveats. Yes you should draft a RB in the first round one of the top X is available.‘X’ of course changes from year to year. Same with whether to draft a QB in the first round depends on your draft position...o This year is no different for these axioms to ring true. Here’s how I’ve determined what RBs you should draft in the first round in 2018 and when it may be the time to pick a QB.I started with the list of top 12 scorers from last season (see top 25 below). Here’s the position breakdown for the top 12 Womens Donte Jackson Jersey , essentially those players scoring like first rounders.Top 12 breakdown by position:QB: 4 of 12 (33%)RB: 5 of 12 (42%)WR: 3 of 12 (25%)ESPN Fantasy FootballThose numbers certainly support taking a RB in the first round but it doesn’t explain not taking a QB. If you take the analysis out to the top 25 the numbers change somewhat.QB: 12 of 25 (48%)RB: 7 of 25 (28%)WR: 6 of 25 (24%)This should be an eye opener for everyone. Almost half of the top 25 are QBs. Since there is typically a maximum of 12 teams in a league you have a pretty good chance of getting a QB much latter in the draft. While I think you can get a good QB in the first round I would say never go earlier than the third round. Hell I got Matt Ryan in the 12th round two seasons ago. He had a big year obviously. Waiting until the fourth or fifth round to draft a QB means you will most likely get the top QB on the board but I’m betting you get a top six or seven QB. So would I ever draft a QB in the first round? Probably not but my advice to you is you better be pretty sure your guy is going to be top five if you pull the trigger. Are you willing to pull the trigger on Russell Wilson in the first this season? How about our QB Cam Newton? Tom Brady? Notice Drew Brees is not on the list. His offense went run heavy last season. Who really saw that coming? Final point is that you might be able to get your top QB in the second round or even later. Moving back to RB the numbers indicate that you should consider at least five RBs in the first round but not too many after that for the second round. Here’s a look at one consensus draft rankings for the top 12, this one by ESPN. Notice not a single QB. It’s seven RBs and five WRs. So let’s assume these are the seven top RBs to consider in the first.LeVeon BellTodd GurleyDavid JohnsonZeke ElliotSaquon BarkleyAlvin KamaraKareem HuntSo if you have a top seven draft position your decision becomes pretty easy. All seven of those guys, if they remain healthy, should not only have good seasons but could vie for the No. 1 position. Of course staying healthy is a key. Just ask all the owners that drafted David Johnson No. 1 overall last season. Johnson was lost of the season in the first game of the season. Yet the data shows that after the top seven RBs the value drops off until you get to the third round area. So it puts more value on getting a top RB in the first two rounds but then waiting until the fourth or fifth round to get your No. 2 RB. If your draft position is 8-12 your decision is a little harder. You could still go RB but with a player that poses a little more risk such as Dalvin Cook. Leonard Fournette or Melvin Gordon. Those would not be bad picks for 11 or 12 in my view. At No. 8 I would look to WR if all seven of those RBs were taken 1-7 (doubtful but it could happen). I see two WRs worth a first round pick in 2018, Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Odell Beckham is coming off and injury but a bigger factor is the offense is sure to run the ball more with Barkley in the stable. Julio Jones might be primed for a bounce back season were he not in a contract dispute. No idea who that might turn out and the last scars it could leave.I am a true believer that you can win a fantasy league no matter where you draft. The key is getting value with every pick鈥nd getting lucky. Luck sometimes can come in the form of not losing a player to injury. So my final advice is to plan to draft in this order if drafting in positions 1-7:1 – RB2 – WR3 – WR4 – QB5 – RBNow if you are drafting 8-12:1 – WR2 – RB3 – WR4 – RB5 – QBMy reasoning here is if you getting a potentially second tier RB as your No. 1 then you better grab another one with potential soon afterward. That will push your QB pick to the ned of the fifth round but remember, you can still get a good QB at that point. In early draft results QBs such as Carson Wentz, Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins are still on the board. Heck I think you could still wait another round and grab my sleeper top five QB Jimmy Garrappolo鈥ut I digress.Just for kicks I did a simulated draft and from the No. 3 draft position I got Tom Brady in the fifth round. Three QBs were off the board before him: Aaron Rodgers http://www.panthersfootballauthentic.com/jarius-wright-jersey-authentic , Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson.So that is the extent of my first couple of rounds drafting secrets. They have worked well for me in the past. Any questions?Panthers vs Cowboys: Q&A with Blogging the Boys I spoke with Dave Halperin of Blogging the Boys about the new-look 2018 Cowboys. He had a lot to say about the optimism in a post-Dez Bryant world, Dak Prescott’s 3rd year, and more. Read on for an inside look at the Panthers week 1 opponent.Cat Scratch Reader: Y’all lost Jason Witten and Dez Bryant this off season. How are the Cowboys going to replace them?Blogging the Boys: Rather than just trying to replace them, the Cowboys are altering their offense somewhat and they are looking at doing things more by committee. Witten and Bryant were certainly the focal point of the offense, but over the last few years their production had started to slip. Bryant’s particular set of skills didn’t seem to match up well with Dak Prescott, so the Cowboys want to go with more precise route-runners. They want to spread the ball around more and move their receivers around more instead of the stable sets they’ve been running for years. So the hope is it will be a community effort in replacing the production of Bryant and Witten.CSR: It feels like you guys have struggled to field a consistent secondary since busting on the selection of Morris Claiborne in the 2012 draft. What are your expectations this year?BTB: The Cowboys secondary is young but has a lot of potential. Dallas brought in Kris Richard who helped create the Legion of Boom in Seattle, he is an aggressive coordinator and the Cowboys want more production from their secondary in the form of turnovers. They have moved Byron Jones from safety to cornerback and he seems to be thriving in the preseason. The cornerbacks with Jones and second-year player Chidobe Awuzie seem pretty solid. At safety they are a little thin http://www.panthersfootballauthentic.com/da_norris-searcy-jersey-authentic , and projected free safety starter Xavier Woods almost certainly won’t be participating in the game. The Cowboys secondary is definitely young, but they have athletes there and they should be better than in past years.CSR: The Panthers offensive line has been one of the most injured units I’ve seen in football and they haven’t played the first game yet. How healthy is the Cowboy’s front 7 and should the Panthers be afraid of them?BTB: The Cowboys front seven on defense could be one of the most improved parts of the team. DeMarcus Lawrence had his breakout season last year, and Randy Gregory is now back and played well in the preseason. They are the bookend defensive ends, and last year’s first-round pick Taco Charlton has shown great improvement in training camp and in preseason. Sean Lee is a stud at linebacker, and Jaylon Smith has looked fully recovered from his college injury and could form a formidable duo with Lee. The defensive tackles are little shaky with David Irving suspended, but overall this unit has talent and depth. Hopefully this year’s first-round pick, linebacker Leighton Vander Esch Womens David Mayo Jersey , will get healthy and be able to contribute. CSR: Dak Prescott came back to Earth a little last season after his impressive rookie campaign. What should we expect from him as he starts year 3?BTB: Last year’s issues were as much about the player’s around him that were missing as they were with Prescott himself. Halfway through the season, Prescott was having an excellent year, close to the same as he had in 2016. Then Tyron Smith got injured and Ezekiel Elliot was suspended and things started to fall apart. The Cowboys backups for Smith were awful and Prescott took a lot of sacks and pressures. Then not having Zeke also hurt the offense, and Prescott’s play fell off. I would expect that he will look more like the guy that played in 2016 and through the first eight games of 2017, than the guy who finished the season.CSR: What player has been a total surprise this offseason and is now in line to see substantial playing time.BTB: Defensive tackle Antwaun Woods. We signed him late in the free agency period and no one really expected much. But he has played really well in training camp and in the preseason names and his stock has shot up. He should find himself with some serious playing time. CSR: How healthy are the Cowboys entering the season?BTB: They are relatively healthy. Travis Frederick is the big issue, our starting All-Pro center will miss some time after being diagnosed with Guillain-Barre Syndrome, an auto-immune disease. There is no precise timetable for his return and he will not be playing this week. As mentioned above Womens Devin Funchess Jersey , starting safety Xavier Woods is injured and likely won’t play. Datone Jones, a member of the defensive tackle rotation will also be out. Defensive tackle Maliek Collins is recovering from a broken foot and we’re not so sure how ready he will be, the same holds for linebacker Leighton Vander Esch who has a groin issue.