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Good morning http://www.jetslockerroom.com/authentic-keyshawn-johnson-jersey , Gang Green Gangsters! I hope everyone’s having a great start to their day. Yesterday was the introductory press conference for new Head Coach Adam Gase. Although Gase caught a lot of attention for his eyes, there was little else of substance for the duration of the conference. However there was an interesting answer given by Chris Johnson in the post-conference interviews conducted by Eric Allen and Erik Coleman. When asked about the phone call by Peyton Manning from Erik, Johnson all but admitted that the call was the deciding factor in hiring Gase. Whether or not that phone call leads to the Jets taking that next step forward remains to be seen, but at this point all fans can do is hope for the best. Welcome to New York, Adam Gase. Here are your links for the Jets this Tuesday..NewYorkJets.com - Adam Gase Introductory Press ConferenceNewYorkJets.com - Head Coach Adam Gase Interview on Jets 360 LiveNewYorkJets.com - Jets GM Speaks with Eric Allen and Erik Coleman About the New Head CoachNewYorkJets.com - Jets CEO Joins Eric Allen and Erik Coleman to Talk About the New Head Coach of the JetsRandy Lange - Adam Gase Introduces Himself to Jets NationDanny Abriano - 5 Takeaways from Jets head coach Adam Gase's introductory presserMatt Stypulkoski - Jets hire Adam Gase: 7 takeaways from new head coach's introductory press conferenceWallace Matthews - Matthews: Bug-eyed Adam Gase stars in sad Jets spiel we've heard beforeMike Vaccaro - Adam Gase's press conference leads plenty to be desiredBrian Costello - Jets lay out vision for future with 'great' Adam Gase hireSNY - Jets' Adam Gase preaches patience in hiring coaching staffSNY - Bent - How Adam Gase can surpass his Jets predecessorsZach Braziller - Adam Gase's 'intense' eyes steal Jets press conferenceMichael Blinn - Jets' Adam Gase responds to those eye memes with confusionTyler Calvaruso - Jets HC Adam Gase’s history working with quarterbacks a mixed bagEthan Greenberg - What Does Adam Gase Think of Jets QB Sam Darnold?Brian Costello - Adam Gase wants to concentrate on Sam Darnold, not defenseZach Braziller - Jets' Adam Gase raves about Sam Darnold at introSteve Serby - Adam Gase hire: Sam Darnold is key to Jets' new coach and futureBrian Costello - Jets CEO Christopher Johnson sells Adam Gase over Mike McCarthyRich Cimini - Jets CEO Christopher Johnson defends hiring of Adam Gase amid fan criticismDarryl Slater - Jets’ Christopher Johnson on fans ripping Adam Gase hire: ‘I’m not trying to win Twitter’Matt Stypulkoski - ‘I completely deny it’: Jets’ Christopher Johnson says Adam Gase can hire own staff, scoffs at reports about Matt Rhule, Mike McCarthyTyler Calvaruso - Jets CEO Christopher Johnson refuses to issue a playoff mandateRalph Vacchiano - Inside the 'no playoff mandate' Christopher Johnson gave Jets coach Adam GaseCBS Sports - Reports: Jets Extend Boyer Brent Qvale Jersey , Continue Pursuit Of WilliamsSNY - Jets reportedly have competition for defensive coordinator Gregg WilliamsRyan Honey - Former Jets DC Kacy Rodgers interviews with GiantsRich Cimini - Sam Darnold-to-Chris Herndon connection highlights Jets' draft classJustin Fried - New York Jets Year in Review: Grading the 2018 wide receiversHere are your missed connections from yesterday.Here’s the thread about nothing, where Jets talk can be bearied.I hope you all have a safe and wonderful day! I can’t definitively tell you that the Jets would be best off trading down from the third overall pick in this month’s NFL Draft. There are definitely scenarios where keeping that pick would be the..."I can’t definitively tell you that the Jets would be best off trading down from the third overall pick in this month’s NFL Draft. There are definitely scenarios where keeping that pick would be the team’s best short-term and long-term play. But I would argue that a lot of the analysis on the pros and cons of trading the pick or keeping it miss the mark.You hear it all the time. The Jets can either take a slam dunk elite pass rushing prospect, or trade down. Trading down could help them to get more quality players, but take them out of the running for a top edge rusher.I think the evidence shows that this thinking is mistaken, however.It doesn’t require a top pick in the Draft to get a top edge guy. There were 22 players in the NFL last season to register at least 10 sacks. Only five of them were top ten picks.Furthermore, the third overall pick is no slam dunk. Nania wrote an article a little while back that looked at the recent history of the third overall pick. He studied the last five years, but a trend is there if you go all the way back to the turn of the century.2018 Sam Darnold: Fingers crossed; good so far2017 Solomon Thomas: Disappointing so far2016 Joey Bosa: Looking great so far2015 Dante Fowler: Disappointment2014 Blake Bortles: Bust2013 Dion Jordan: Bust2012 Trent Richardson: Bust2011 Marcell Dareus: Not bad on paper, but the next three picks were A.J. Green Womens Marcus Maye Jersey , Patrick Peterson, and Julio Jones.2010 Gerald McCoy: Excellent2009 Tyson Jackson: Way, way overdrafted2008 Matt Ryan: Excellent2007 Joe Thomas: Immortal player2006 Vince Young: Bust2005 Braylon Edwards: Had a few moments but mostly a disappointing underachiever2004 Larry Fitzgerald: Immortal player2003 Andre Johnson: Superstar2002 Joey Harrington: Bust2001 Gerald Warren: Bust. Next three picks were Justin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Richard Seymour. Ouch.2000 Chris Samuels: ExcellentI am sure every single fan of a team picking third overall at the time thought it had a guaranteed superstar on its hands. But that success rate of that pick has been roughly that of a coin flip since the turn of the century.Are pass rushers a lock at the top of the Draft? Here are the defensive linemen and edge guys picked in the top three over the last decade:Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas, Joey Bosa, Dante Fowler http://www.jetslockerroom.com/authentic-kelechi-osemele-jersey , Jadeveon Clowney, Dion Jordan, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, and Tyson JacksonThat is not a terrible group by any stretch of the imagination. But it doesn’t tell the story of a slam dunk either. Four of the eleven names are viewed either disappointments or busts at this point in time (Thomas, Fowler Brandon Copeland Jersey , Jordan, and Jackson).And while there are some good players, a number don’t quite hit the threshold of elite pass rusher (Clowney). We aren’t looking for merely good players in the top three. At this spot in the Draft we are seeking elite pass rushers. However, only Bosa and Miller have produced multiple seasons with 10 or more sacks. If you want to throw the young Garrett into that elite mix too because he’s only had two years in the league, I won’t quibble. The point still stands...................................I am going to ask you to bear with me now because there is much nuance to the point I am making.I am not arguing that scouting is irrelevant. NFL teams do some things really well when it comes to finding elite pass rushers. They do a tremendous job weeding out the guys who are not elite. That list of 22 players with at least 10 sacks in 2018 includes nobody drafted after the fourth round. There was one fourth round pick, Geno Atkins. There were two third round picks. There were five second round picks. The rest were all first rounders.I am not arguing a lower pick gives you an equal or better chance of finding an elite player than a higher pick.The hit rate of the third overall pick is still higher than those below it. Over the long run, you will do better picking early than you will picking late...................................There are two arguments I would make.While NFL teams are generally pretty good at ballparking the ability of edge rushers, they aren’t good at separating the good from the elite.While picking high in the Draft gives you better odds than picking lower Womens Chris Herndon Jersey , the odds of hitting on a high pick are nowhere near as good as many believe.When I talk with Jets fans online and offline I get the feeling many view Nick Bosa and Josh Allen as 90-95% bets to be elite players. Those odds are simply too high.There are plenty of reasons to believe these are special prospects, and they might hit those ceilings, but there’s a reason so many picks either underperform or flat out bust. Projecting how guys between 20 and 23 years old will adapt to the NFL with any degree of certainty is impossible. There are too many unknowns.How will they perform against the best competition they have ever seen? Can they learn quickly? Will they have the motivation to work after being handed millions? Will they suffer a lot of injuries? Will they get the right coaching?I could be here all day coming up with more questions.Teams evaluate skillsets and do research on the personalities of these players. This allows the teams to have better odds than they would throwing darts at a board. Ultimately, though, teams make educated guesses. They don’t pick sure things.There is a cost of trading down from a higher pick to a lower pick. It just isn’t as much as you think. You aren’t giving away a sure thing. There is no sure thing in the Draft.That makes the benefit of the extra picks you accumulate in a trade down more valuable than you believe.